The True Expert Knows Which Question Should Be Asked

Stanford GSB Research Paper No. 1856

14 Pages Posted: 30 Jun 2004

See all articles by Eddie Dekel

Eddie Dekel

Northwestern University - Department of Economics; Tel Aviv University - Eitan Berglas School of Economics

Yossi Feinberg

Stanford Graduate School of Business

Date Written: June 2004

Abstract

We suggest a test for discovering whether a potential expert is informed of the distribution of a stochastic process. In a non-Bayesian non-parametric setting, the expert is asked to make a prediction which is tested against a single realization of the stochastic process. It is shown that by asking the expert to predict a "small" set of sequences, the test will assure that any informed expert can pass the test with probability one with respect to the actual distribution. Moreover, for the uninformed non-expert, it is impossible to pass this test, in the sense that for any choice of a "small" set of sequences, only a "small" set of measures will assign a positive probability to the given set. Hence, for "most" measures, the non-expert will surely fail the test. We define small as category 1 sets, described in more detail in the paper.

Keywords: Economic theory

JEL Classification: K9

Suggested Citation

Dekel-Tabak, Eddie and Feinberg, Yossi, The True Expert Knows Which Question Should Be Asked (June 2004). Stanford GSB Research Paper No. 1856, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=560082 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.560082

Eddie Dekel-Tabak (Contact Author)

Northwestern University - Department of Economics ( email )

2003 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL 60208
United States

Tel Aviv University - Eitan Berglas School of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 39040
Ramat Aviv, Tel Aviv, 69978
Israel
(972) 3-6409715 (Phone)
(972) 3-6409908 (Fax)

Yossi Feinberg

Stanford Graduate School of Business ( email )

655 Knight Way
Stanford, CA 94305-5015
United States

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
65
Abstract Views
764
rank
428,997
PlumX Metrics