A Test of the Predictive Validity of Non-Linear Qaly Models Using Time Trade-Off Utilities

UPF Economics and Business Working Paper No. 741

34 Pages Posted: 12 Jul 2004

See all articles by José Luis Pinto Prades

José Luis Pinto Prades

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences

José María Abellán Perpiñán

University of Murcia - Department of Applied Economics

Ildefonso Mendez

University of Murcia - Department of Applied Economics

Xabier Badia

Health Outcomes Research Europe (HOR-Europe) Group

Date Written: February 2004

Abstract

This paper presents a test of the predictive validity of various classes of QALY models (i.e., linear, power and exponential models). We first estimated TTO utilities for 43 EQ-5D chronic health states and next these states were embedded in health profiles. The chronic TTO utilities were then used to predict the responses to TTO questions with health profiles. We find that the power QALY model clearly outperforms linear and exponential QALY models. Optimal power coefficient is 0.65. Our results suggest that TTO-based QALY calculations may be biased. This bias can be avoided using a power QALY model.

Keywords: Cost-utility analysis, QALYs, power QALY model, predictive validity, time tradeoff

JEL Classification: I10, D99

Suggested Citation

Pinto Prades, José Luis and Abellán Perpiñán, José María and Mendez, Ildefonso and Badia, Xabier, A Test of the Predictive Validity of Non-Linear Qaly Models Using Time Trade-Off Utilities (February 2004). UPF Economics and Business Working Paper No. 741, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=563327 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.563327

José Luis Pinto Prades (Contact Author)

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27
Barcelona, 08005
Spain

José María Abellán Perpiñán

University of Murcia - Department of Applied Economics ( email )

3010 Murcia
Spain
+34968363736 (Phone)
+34968363745 (Fax)

Ildefonso Mendez

University of Murcia - Department of Applied Economics ( email )

3010 Murcia
Spain

Xabier Badia

Health Outcomes Research Europe (HOR-Europe) Group ( email )

08021 Barcelona
Spain

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
95
Abstract Views
2,114
rank
317,676
PlumX Metrics