Using Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Country/Industry-Based Asset Allocation

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the usefulness of analysts' earnings forecast revisions in the allocation of funds to different industries and countries. In particular, we ask whether a post analyst revision announcement drift in prices can be exploited to guide an asset allocation strategy based on industry, or country, selection. Using monthly consensus I/B/E/S-First Call analysts' earnings forecasts for companies listed on the main European stock markets over the period January 1987 to December 2001, we find a significant post revision announcement effect for individual companies. However, the abnormal returns evaporate away as we move from an individual company level to an industry or country level. We provide two kinds of evidence which seem to cast doubt on the analysts' ability to fully incorporate industry and country specific information into their forecasts. First, we show that returns are driven more by common components than earnings forecast revisions. Second, we find that company specific news reflected by the revision signal dominates industry or country news.

Keywords: Earnings forecasts, asset allocation

JEL Classification: G11, G15, G29, M41