Estimating the Level of Rail- and Road-Based Passenger Mobility in India

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to forecast the level of rail-, as well as road-based passenger mobility in India up to the year 2015-16. Forecasting is based on estimation of S-shaped growth curves using annual data of the level of passenger mobility from the year 1950-51 to 1995-96. It is found that road transport will play an extremely dominant role in India in providing passenger mobility to the people in forthcoming years. By the end of the year 2015-16, road share in passenger movement will touch the mark of 95 percent as against the 5 percent for the rail. In such circumstances, the expected greater reliance on road will pose a challenge to the policy makers. Energy availability and environmental concerns will be areas of grave concern.

Keywords: Passenger mobility, forecasting

JEL Classification: C53, L90, R40