Estimating the Level of Rail- and Road-Based Passenger Mobility in India

Indian Journal of Transport Management, Vol. 24, No. 12, pp. 771-781

16 Pages Posted: 26 Jul 2004

See all articles by Sanjay Kumar Singh

Sanjay Kumar Singh

Indian Institute of Management Lucknow

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to forecast the level of rail-, as well as road-based passenger mobility in India up to the year 2015-16. Forecasting is based on estimation of S-shaped growth curves using annual data of the level of passenger mobility from the year 1950-51 to 1995-96. It is found that road transport will play an extremely dominant role in India in providing passenger mobility to the people in forthcoming years. By the end of the year 2015-16, road share in passenger movement will touch the mark of 95 percent as against the 5 percent for the rail. In such circumstances, the expected greater reliance on road will pose a challenge to the policy makers. Energy availability and environmental concerns will be areas of grave concern.

Keywords: Passenger mobility, forecasting

JEL Classification: C53, L90, R40

Suggested Citation

Singh, Sanjay Kumar, Estimating the Level of Rail- and Road-Based Passenger Mobility in India. Indian Journal of Transport Management, Vol. 24, No. 12, pp. 771-781. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=567581

Sanjay Kumar Singh (Contact Author)

Indian Institute of Management Lucknow ( email )

Lucknow, 226013
India
+91 522 273 6637 (Phone)
+91 522 273 4005 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://ganga.iiml.ac.in/~sanjay/

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