Growth Accelerations

33 Pages Posted: 2 Aug 2004

See all articles by Ricardo Hausmann

Ricardo Hausmann

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

Lant Pritchett

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS); Center for Global Development

Dani Rodrik

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Abstract

Unlike most cross-country growth analyses, we focus on turning points in growth performance. We look for instances of rapid acceleration in economic growth that are sustained for at least eight years and identify more than 80 such episodes since the 1950s. Growth accelerations tend to be correlated with increases in investment and trade, and with real exchange rate depreciations. Political-regime changes are statistically significant predictors of growth accelerations. External shocks tend produce growth accelerations that eventually fizzle out, while economic reform is a statistically significant predictor of growth accelerations that are sustained. However, growth accelerations to be highly upredictable: the vast majority of growth accelerations are unrelated to standard determinants and most instances of economic reform do not produce growth accelerations.

Keywords: International Economics, Macroeconomics, International Development

Suggested Citation

Hausmann, Ricardo and Pritchett, Lant and Rodrik, Dani, Growth Accelerations. KSG Working Paper No. RWP04-030. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=571823 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.571823

Ricardo Hausmann (Contact Author)

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

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Lant Pritchett

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~lpritch/

Center for Global Development

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Dani Rodrik

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

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Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
617-495-9454 (Phone)
617-496-5747 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/rodrik/

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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