Confidence Intervals for the Largest Autoresgressive Root in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series

38 Pages Posted: 24 Jan 2007 Last revised: 17 Apr 2022

See all articles by James H. Stock

James H. Stock

Harvard University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

Date Written: May 1991

Abstract

This paper provides asymptotic confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root of a time series when this root is close to one. The intervals are readily constructed either graphically or using tables in the Appendix. When applied to the Nelson-Plosser (1982) data set, the main conclusion is that the confidence intervals typically are wide. The conventional emphasis on testing for whether the largest root equals one fails to convey the substantial sampling variability associated with this measure of persistence.

Suggested Citation

Stock, James H., Confidence Intervals for the Largest Autoresgressive Root in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series (May 1991). NBER Working Paper No. t0105, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=573104

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