What Has Determined the Rapid Post-War Growth of Intra-Eu Trade?

Abstract

Based on the gravity model by Baier and Bergstrand (2001), we use a static and dynamic panel approach to estimate the determinants of the growth of intra-EU trade from 1960 to 2000. The results suggest that income growth was the major force, accounting for approximately two-thirds of total growth. Trade liberalization still had a sizeable effect, while other factors had only a little impact (income convergence, real effective exchange rate changes) or played no role (trade costs). Our estimation results for intra-EU trade, using a variety of extensions, underline the robustness of the Baier-Bergstrand cross-section findings for world trade.

Keywords: European integration, gravity model, international trade

JEL Classification: C23, F12, F14, F15