Stock and Bond Returns with Moody Investors
65 Pages Posted: 18 Aug 2004
Date Written: November 2006
We present a tractable, linear model for the simultaneous pricing of stock and bond returns that incorporates stochastic risk aversion. In this model, analytic solutions for endogenous stock and bond prices and returns are readily calculated. After estimating the parameters of the model by the general method of moments, we investigate a series of classic puzzles of the empirical asset pricing literature. In particular, our model is shown to jointly accommodate the mean and volatility of equity and long term bond risk premia as well as salient features of the nominal short rate, the dividend yield, and the term spread. Also, the model matches the evidence for predictability of excess stock and bond returns. However, the stock-bond return correlation implied by the model is somewhat higher than in the data.
Keywords: Equity premium, excess volatility, stock-bond return correlation, return predictability, countercyclical risk aversion, habit persistence
JEL Classification: E44, G12, G15
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation