Separating Moral Hazard from Adverse Selection and Learning in Automobile Insurance: Longitudinal Evidence from France

Abstract

The identification of information problems in different markets is a challenging issue in the economic literature. This paper performs tests of residual asymmetric information in the French automobile insurance market for the 1995-1997 period. This market is characterized by the presence of a regulated experience-rating scheme (bonus-malus). Contract choices are strongly associated with the bonus-malus of policyholders. We have access to longitudinal survey data with dynamic information both on claims and accidents. We propose a causality test to distinguish pathways through which a positive correlation arises between contract choice and accidents. We find evidence of moral hazard among a sub-group of policyholders with significant driving experience (5-15 years). We distinguish this moral hazard estimate from adverse selection and learning. Policyholders with less experience have a combination of learning and moral hazard, whereas no residual information problem is found for policyholders with more than 15 years of experience.

Keywords: Automobile insurance, road safety, asymmetric information, experience rating, moral hazard, adverse selection, dynamic panel data models, Granger causality test

JEL Classification: D80, G22, C23, L51