Optimal Operational Monetary Policy in the Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans Model of the U.S. Business Cycle

52 Pages Posted: 17 Sep 2004 Last revised: 3 Dec 2004

See all articles by Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Martín Uribe

Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: September 2004

Abstract

This paper identifies optimal interest-rate rules within a rich, dynamic, general equilibrium model that has been shown to account well for observed aggregate dynamics in the postwar United States. We perform policy evaluations based on second-order accurate approximations to conditional and unconditional expected welfare. We require that interest-rate rules be operational, in the sense that they include as arguments only a few readily observable macroeconomic indicators and respect the zero bound on nominal interest rates. We find that the optimal operational monetary policy is a real-interest-rate targeting rule. That is, an interest-rate feedback rule featuring a unit inflation coefficient, a mute response to output, and no interest-rate smoothing. Contrary to existing studies, we find a significant degree of optimal inflation volatility. A key factor driving this result is the assumption of indexation to past inflation. Under indexation to long-run inflation the optimal inflation volatility is close to zero. Finally, we show that initial conditions matter for welfare rankings of policies.

Suggested Citation

Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie and Uribe, Martin, Optimal Operational Monetary Policy in the Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans Model of the U.S. Business Cycle (September 2004). NBER Working Paper No. w10724, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=589009

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe (Contact Author)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

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United Kingdom

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Martin Uribe

Columbia University - Graduate School of Arts and Sciences - Department of Economics ( email )

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