The Performance of the Pivotal-Voter Model in Small-Scale Elections: Evidence from Texas Liquor Referenda

29 Pages Posted: 7 Oct 2004 Last revised: 16 Apr 2022

See all articles by Stephen Coate

Stephen Coate

Cornell University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Michael Conlin

Syracuse University - Department of Economics

Andrea Moro

Vanderbilt University - College of Arts and Science - Department of Economics

Date Written: September 2004

Abstract

How well does the pivotal-voter model explain voter participation in small-scale elections? This paper explores this question using data from Texas liquor referenda. It first structurally estimates the parameters of a pivotal-voter model using the Texas data. It then uses the estimates to evaluate both the within and out-of-sample performance of the model. The analysis shows that the model is capable of predicting turnout in the data fairly well, but tends, on average, to predict closer electoral outcomes than are observed in the data. This difficulty allows the pivotal-voter model to be outperformed by a simple alternative model based on the idea of expressive voting.

Suggested Citation

Coate, Stephen and Conlin, Michael and Moro, Andrea, The Performance of the Pivotal-Voter Model in Small-Scale Elections: Evidence from Texas Liquor Referenda (September 2004). NBER Working Paper No. w10797, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=595196

Stephen Coate (Contact Author)

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Michael Conlin

Syracuse University - Department of Economics ( email )

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Andrea Moro

Vanderbilt University - College of Arts and Science - Department of Economics ( email )

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