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Overestimating Self_Control: Evidence from the Health Club Industry

44 Pages Posted: 19 Oct 2004 Last revised: 26 Jul 2010

Stefano DellaVigna

University of California, Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Ulrike Malmendier

University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics; University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

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Date Written: October 2004

Abstract

Experimental evidence suggests that people make time-inconsistent choices and display overconfidence about positive personal attributes. Do these features affect consumer behavior in themarket? To address this question we use a new panel data set from three US health clubs with information on the contract choices and the day-to-day attendance decisions of 7,978 health club members over three years. Members who choose a contract with a flat monthly fee of over $70 attend on average 4.8 times per month. They pay a price per expected visit of more than $17, even though a $10-per-visit fee is also available. On average, these users forgo savings of $700 during their membership. We review many aspects of the consumer behavior, including the interval between last attendance and contract termination, the survival probability, and the correlation between different consumption choices. The empirical results are difficult to reconcile with the standard assumption of time-consistent preferences and rational expectations. A model of time-inconsistent agents with overconfidence about future patience explains the findings. The agents overestimate the future attendance and delay contract cancellation whenever renewal is automatic. Salesman pressure and overstimation of future efficiency are the leading alternative explanations.

Suggested Citation

DellaVigna, Stefano and Malmendier, Ulrike, Overestimating Self_Control: Evidence from the Health Club Industry (October 2004). NBER Working Paper No. w10819. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=601121

Stefano DellaVigna

University of California, Berkeley ( email )

Economics Department
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Berkeley, CA 94720
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HOME PAGE: http://emlab.berkeley.edu/users/sdellavi/

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Ulrike Malmendier (Contact Author)

University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics ( email )

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Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
United States
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(510) 642-6615 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/~ulrike/

University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business ( email )

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Berkeley, CA 94720
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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United Kingdom

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

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Germany

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