Declining Trend in Rural Credit Delivery in India: A Trend Break Analysis of Univariate Series
9 Pages Posted: 18 Oct 2004
Date Written: October 14, 2004
The basic analysis in this paper is to test Perron (1989) hypothesis on trend break in univariate series. This paper applies Perron's procedure to the data on rural credit delivery in India and concludes that the hypothesis, which states that most of the macro-economic time series, initially exhibiting unit root process, become trend-stationary if one allow one time trend break in it at some suitable time, does not hold good with this series. Instead, the paper concludes that the unit root in the data persists even after allowing one time trend break, despite the fact that the trend break was found to be statistically significant.
Keywords: Trend break, time-series, rural credit
JEL Classification: C32, G21
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation