Fiscal Implication of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending

57 Pages Posted: 21 Oct 2004

See all articles by Thai-Thanh Dang

Thai-Thanh Dang

Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) - Economics Department (ECO)

Pablo Antolin

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD

Howard Oxley

Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) - Economics Department (ECO)

Date Written: September 2001

Abstract

This paper provides new projections on the fiscal impact of age-related spending for OECD countries over the next half century. These results are based on national models using an agreed upon set of assumptions about macroeconomic and demographic developments for all countries. Recent reforms to pension systems have partly offset the impact on spending of an increasingly elderly population, and there has been a major improvement in the underlying fiscal situation in the 1990s. However, further age-related spending (including old age pensions, health and spending associated with children) is still projected to increase on average around 6 to 7 per cent of GDP over the projection period. This calls for maintaining the reform effort and intensifying it in several countries, if fiscal sustainability is to be maintained.

Keywords: Ageing populations, pensions, health care, long-term projections

JEL Classification: I1, I3, J1, J11, J14, J26

Suggested Citation

Dang, Thai-Thanh and Antolin, Pablo and Oxley, Howard, Fiscal Implication of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending (September 2001). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Working Paper No. 305. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=607122 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.607122

Thai-Thanh Dang

Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) - Economics Department (ECO) ( email )

2 rue Andre Pascal
Paris Cedex 16, MO 63108
France

Pablo Antolin (Contact Author)

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD ( email )

2 rue Andre Pascal
Paris Cedex 16, MO 63108
France
33-1-45.24.90.86 (Phone)
33-1-44.30.63.08 (Fax)

Howard Oxley

Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) - Economics Department (ECO) ( email )

2 rue Andre Pascal
Paris Cedex 16, MO 63108
France

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