Pharmaceutical Development Phases: A Duration Analysis

FTC, Bureau of Economics Working Paper No. 274

30 Pages Posted: 25 Oct 2004

See all articles by Rosa M. Abrantes-Metz

Rosa M. Abrantes-Metz

Global Economics Group, LLC; New York University - Leonard N. Stern School of Business - Department of Economics

Christopher Adams

CBO

Albert D. Metz

Moody's Investors Service

Date Written: October 2004

Abstract

This paper estimates a duration model of late stage drug development in the pharmaceutical industry using publicly available data. The paper presents descriptive results on the estimated relationship between a particular drug's characteristics such as therapy category, route of administration and originator's size, and that drug's pathway through the three stages of human clinical trials and regulatory review. The results suggest that drugs with longer durations are less likely to succeed, drugs from larger firms are more likely to succeed and faster in the later phases of development, and that durations fell between 1995 and 2002.

Keywords: Pharmceuticals, research and development, duration analysis

JEL Classification: I11, L65, 031

Suggested Citation

Abrantes-Metz, Rosa M. and Adams, Christopher and Metz, Albert D., Pharmaceutical Development Phases: A Duration Analysis (October 2004). FTC, Bureau of Economics Working Paper No. 274. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=607941 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.607941

Rosa M. Abrantes-Metz (Contact Author)

Global Economics Group, LLC ( email )

22 Cortlandt Street
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HOME PAGE: http://www.globaleconomicsgroup.com

New York University - Leonard N. Stern School of Business - Department of Economics ( email )

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New York, NY 10003
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Christopher Adams

CBO ( email )

Ford House Office Building
2nd & D Streets, SW
Washington, DC 20515-6925
United States

Albert D. Metz

Moody's Investors Service ( email )

99 Church Street
New York, NY 10007
United States

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