A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism

39 Pages Posted: 28 Oct 2004

See all articles by Maria Berrittella

Maria Berrittella

University of Palermo - CIRPIET

Andrea Bigano

RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment; CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici; Ca' Foscari University of Venice

Roberto Roson

Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia; Bocconi University - IEFE Centre for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy; Loyola Andalucia University

Richard S. J. Tol

VU University Amsterdam - Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM); Carnegie Mellon University - Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change; University of Hamburg - Centre for Marine and Climate Research (ZMK); Princeton University

Date Written: October 2004

Abstract

This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods. The second shocks reallocate income across world regions, simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists' expenditure. Our analysis highlights that variations in tourist flows will affect regional economies in a way that is directly related to the sign and magnitude of flow variations. At a global scale, climate change will ultimately lead to a welfare loss, unevenly spread across regions.

Keywords: Climate change, Computable general equilibrium models, Tourism

JEL Classification: D58, L83, Q51, Q54

Suggested Citation

Berrittella, Maria and Bigano, Andrea and Roson, Roberto and Tol, Richard S. J., A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism (October 2004). FEEM Working Paper No. 127.04, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=609742 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.609742

Maria Berrittella

University of Palermo - CIRPIET ( email )

Viale delle Scienza
Palermo, 90128
Italy

Andrea Bigano (Contact Author)

RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment ( email )

Via Bergognone, 34
Milan, 20144
Italy

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Ca' Foscari University of Venice ( email )

Dorsoduro 3246
Venice, Veneto 30123
Italy

Roberto Roson

Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia ( email )

Cannaregio 873
Venice, 30121
Italy
+39 041 2349147 (Phone)
+39 041 2349176 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://venus.unive.it/roson

Bocconi University - IEFE Centre for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy ( email )

viale Filippetti, 9
Milan, 20122
Italy

Loyola Andalucia University ( email )

Escritor Castilla Aguayo no. 4
Cordoba, CORDOBA 14004
Spain

Richard S. J. Tol

VU University Amsterdam - Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) ( email )

De Boelelaan 1115
Amsterdam, 1081 HV
Netherlands
+31 20 444 9555 (Phone)
+31 20 444 9553 (Fax)

Carnegie Mellon University - Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change

Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
United States

University of Hamburg - Centre for Marine and Climate Research (ZMK)

Troplowitzstrasse 7
D-22529 Hamburg
Germany

Princeton University ( email )

22 Chambers Street
Princeton, NJ 08544-0708
United States

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