Does Turkey Have a Special Trade Relation with the EU? A Gravity Model Approach

Abstract

We apply the gravity model to Turkey's trade flows over 1967-2001. First, we check whether this model fits Turkey's geographical pattern of trade in goods. Second, provided that the model works, we assess whether Turkey already has a "special" trade relation with the EU, namely whether merchandise exchanges between the two parties exceed what the gravity approach predicts. The main findings are: i) the gravity model provides a good fit of Turkey's trade patterns; and ii) despite the 1963 Association agreement, and the customs union launched in 1996, there is no evidence of additional trade between Turkey and the EU.

Keywords: Gravity equation, Turkey, European Union, international trade

JEL Classification: C23, F14, F15