Does Turkey Have a Special Trade Relation with the EU? A Gravity Model Approach

22 Pages Posted: 28 Oct 2004

See all articles by Daniele Antonucci

Daniele Antonucci

Confederation of Italian Industries, Research Department

Stefano Manzocchi

Luiss University - Department of Economics and Finance; LUISS University

Date Written: October 29, 2005

Abstract

We apply the gravity model to Turkey's trade flows over 1967-2001. First, we check whether this model fits Turkey's geographical pattern of trade in goods. Second, provided that the model works, we assess whether Turkey already has a "special" trade relation with the EU, namely whether merchandise exchanges between the two parties exceed what the gravity approach predicts. The main findings are: i) the gravity model provides a good fit of Turkey's trade patterns; and ii) despite the 1963 Association agreement, and the customs union launched in 1996, there is no evidence of additional trade between Turkey and the EU.

Keywords: Gravity equation, Turkey, European Union, international trade

JEL Classification: C23, F14, F15

Suggested Citation

Antonucci, Daniele and Manzocchi, Stefano and Manzocchi, Stefano, Does Turkey Have a Special Trade Relation with the EU? A Gravity Model Approach (October 29, 2005). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=609881 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.609881

Daniele Antonucci (Contact Author)

Confederation of Italian Industries, Research Department ( email )

viale dell'Astronomia, 30
00144, Rome
Italy
+39 06 5903256 (Phone)

Stefano Manzocchi

LUISS University ( email )

Viale Romania, 32
Rome, 00197
Italy

Luiss University - Department of Economics and Finance ( email )

Viale Romania, 32
Rome, 00197
Italy

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