The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Demographic Shocks

CentER Working Paper No. 2004-90

25 Pages Posted: 10 Nov 2004

See all articles by Ben J. Heijdra

Ben J. Heijdra

University of Groningen - Department of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Jenny E. Ligthart

Tilburg University - CentER, Department of Economics; University of Groningen - Faculty of Economics and Business; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Date Written: September 2004

Abstract

The paper employs an extended Yaari-Blanchard model of overlapping generations to study how the macroeconomy is affected over time by various demographic changes. It is shown that a proportional decline in fertility and death rates has qualitatively similar effects to capital income subsidies; both per capita savings and per capita consumption increase in the new steady state. A drop in the birth rate, while keeping the death rate constant, reduces per capita savings, but increases per capita consumption if the generational turnover effect is dominated by the intertemporal labor supply effect. If the generational turnover effect is sufficiently strong, however, a decline in the birth rate may, contrary to standard results, give rise to an increase in per capita savings. Finally, a fertility rate reduction which leaves unaffected the rate of generational turnover is shown to have effects qualitatively similar to those of a fall in public consumption. Both per capita savings and per capita output decline, but per capita consumption rises.

Keywords: Fertility, labor supply, transition economy

JEL Classification: E12, E63, L16

Suggested Citation

Heijdra, Ben J. and Ligthart, Jenny E., The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Demographic Shocks (September 2004). CentER Working Paper No. 2004-90. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=616610 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.616610

Ben J. Heijdra (Contact Author)

University of Groningen - Department of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 800
9700 AV Groningen
Netherlands
+31 50 363 7303 (Phone)
+31 50 363 7337 (Fax)

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Jenny E. Ligthart

Tilburg University - CentER, Department of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands
+31 13 466 8755 (Phone)
+31 13 466 4032 (Fax)

University of Groningen - Faculty of Economics and Business ( email )

Postbus 72
9700 AB Groningen
Netherlands

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

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