The Information of Option Volume for Future Stock Prices

37 Pages Posted: 13 Dec 2004

See all articles by Allen M. Poteshman

Allen M. Poteshman

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Finance

Jun Pan

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); China Academy of Financial Research (CAFR)

Date Written: November 2004

Abstract

We present strong evidence that option trading volume contains information about future stock price movements. Taking advantage of a unique dataset from the Chicago Board Options Exchange, we construct put-call ratios from option volume initiated by buyers to open new positions. On a risk-adjusted basis, stocks with low put-call ratios outperform stocks with high put-call ratios by more than 40 basis points on the next day and more than 1% over the next week. Partitioning our option signals into components that are publicly and non-publicly observable, we find that the economic source of this predictability is non-public information possessed by option traders rather than market inefficiency. We also find greater predictability from option signals for stocks with higher concentrations of informed traders and from option contracts with greater leverage.

Suggested Citation

Poteshman, Allen M. and Pan, Jun, The Information of Option Volume for Future Stock Prices (November 2004). NBER Working Paper No. w10925. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=622869

Allen M. Poteshman

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Finance ( email )

340 Wohlers Hall
1206 South Sixth Street
Champaign, IL 61820
United States
217-265-0565 (Phone)
217-244-3102 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.business.uiuc.edu/poteshma

Jun Pan (Contact Author)

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF) ( email )

Shanghai Jiao Tong University
211 West Huaihai Road
Shanghai, 200030
China

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

China Academy of Financial Research (CAFR)

1954 Huashan Road
Shanghai P.R.China, 200030
China

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