Will the Kyoto Protocol Affect Growth in Russia?

Abstract

In light of the recent argument that rapid economic growth in Russia over the next decade might result in emissions higher than the Kyoto target, thereby putting much-needed growth at risk, Lecocq and Shalizi revisit the discussion on the costs and benefits of ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by Russia. They conclude that even under a very high economic growth assumption, and even under very conservative assumptions about the decoupling between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth, Russia still benefits from a net surplus of emissions allowances, and thus will not see its growth adversely affected by the Kyoto target. In addition, a review of the possible costs and benefits of the Kyoto Protocol suggests that the potential sale of excess allowances far outweighs the other costs.

This paper - a product of the Infrastructure and Environment Team, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze climate change mitigation and adaptation options.