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A Simple Long Memory Model of Realized Volatility

27 Pages Posted: 7 Dec 2004  

Fulvio Corsi

Ca' Foscari University of Venice; City University London

Date Written: August 18, 2004

Abstract

In the present work we propose a new realized volatility model to directly model and forecast the time series behavior of volatility. The purpose is to obtain a conditional volatility model based on realized volatility which is able to reproduce the memory persistence observed in the data but, at the same time, remains parsimonious and easy to estimate. Inspired by the Heterogeneous Market Hypothesis and the asymmetric propagation of volatility between long and short time horizons, we propose an additive cascade of different volatility components generated by the actions of different types of market participants. This additive volatility cascade leads to a simple AR-type model in the realized volatility with the feature of considering volatilities realized over different time horizons. We term this model, Heterogeneous Autoregressive model of the Realized Volatility (HAR-RV). In spite of the simplicity of its structure, simulation results seem to confirm that the HAR-RV model successfully achieves the purpose of reproducing the main empirical features of financial data (long memory, fat tail, self-similarity) in a very simple and parsimonious way. Preliminary results on the estimation and forecast of the HAR-RV model on USD/CHF data, show remarkably good out of sample forecasting performance which steadily and substantially outperforms those of standard models.

Keywords: Realized volatility, long memory, high-frequency data, volatility forecasting, HAR-RV model

JEL Classification: C22, C50, F31

Suggested Citation

Corsi, Fulvio, A Simple Long Memory Model of Realized Volatility (August 18, 2004). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=626064 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.626064

Fulvio Corsi (Contact Author)

Ca' Foscari University of Venice ( email )

Cannaregio 873
Venice, Non-US 30121
Italy

City University London ( email )

Northampton Square
London, EC1V OHB
United Kingdom

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