Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Betas
Posted: 8 Dec 2004
We propose a mean-reverting stochastic process for the market beta. In a simulation study, the proposed model generates significantly more precise beta estimates than GARCH betas, betas conditioned on aggregate or firm-level variables, and rolling-regression betas, even when the true betas are generated based on these competing specifications. Our model significantly improves out-of-sample hedging effectiveness. In asset-pricing tests, our model provides substantially stronger support for the conditional CAPM relative to competing beta models and helps resolve asset-pricing anomalies such as the size, book-to-market, and idiosyncratic volatility effects in the cross-section of stock returns.
Keywords: Stochastic betas, mean-reverting systematic risk, size effect, book-to-market effect
JEL Classification: G12, G10
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