Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction

4 Pages Posted: 4 Jan 2005 Last revised: 4 Jan 2012

See all articles by J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract

Historically, seasonal factors have been concerned with estimates of historical data, not with forecasting. The Miller-Williams procedures enable organizations to adjust seasonal factors so as to make more accurate forecasts. This has an immediate payoff to forecasters - they can reduce forecast errors by about four percent. In addition, their papers have paved the way for improvements in the estimation of seasonal factors for forecasting, such as through the use of domain knowledge and analogous series.

Keywords: Forecasting, seasonal factors, forecast accuracy

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, J. Scott, Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 20, pp. 523-527, 2004. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=631911

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
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Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

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