Structural Breaks and Long-Run Trends in Commodity Prices

36 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Javier Leon

Javier Leon

Inter-American Development Bank (IADB)

Raimundo Soto

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - Institute of Economics

Date Written: November 30, 1999

Abstract

Time-series techniques that control for the presence of structural breaks reveal that the international price of most commodities presents a negative long-run trend for 1900-92. They also show that shocks are far less persistent than previously estimated. Both findings suggest that there may be important welfare gains from stabilization mechanisms such as commodity funds.

Suggested Citation

Leon, Javier and Soto, Raimundo, Structural Breaks and Long-Run Trends in Commodity Prices (November 30, 1999). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=636171

Javier Leon

Inter-American Development Bank (IADB)

1300 New York Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20577
United States

Raimundo Soto (Contact Author)

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - Institute of Economics ( email )

Casilla 76
Correo 17
Santiago
Chile

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
326
Abstract Views
5,971
Rank
176,352
PlumX Metrics