The Risks and Macroeconomic Impact of Hiv/Aids in the Middle East and North Africa: Why Waiting to Intervene Can Be Costly

37 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

Date Written: July 2002

Abstract

Robalino, Jenkins, and El Maroufi develop a model of optimal growth to assess the risks of an HIV/AIDS epidemic and the expected economic impact in nine countries in the Middle East and North Africa region - Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen. The model incorporates an HIV/AIDS diffusion component based on two transmission factors - sexual intercourse and exchange of infected needles among intravenous drug users. Given high levels of uncertainty on the model parameters that determine the dynamics of the epidemic and its economic impact, the authors explore large regions of the parameter space. The prevalence rates in year 2015 would be below 1 percent in 16 percent of the cases, while they would be above 3 percent in 50 percent of the cases. On average, GDP losses across countries for 2000-2025 could approximate 35 percent of today's GDP. In all countries it is possible to observe scenarios where losses surpass today's GDP. The authors quantify the impact of expanding condom use and access to clean needles for intravenous drug users. They show that these interventions act as an insurance policy that increases social welfare. They also show that delaying action for five years can cost, on average, the equivalent of six percentage points of today's GDP.

This paper - a product of the Human Development Group, Middle East and North Africa Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to raise awareness about the social and economic cost of HIV/AIDS. David Robalino may be contacted at drobalino@worldbank.org.

Suggested Citation

Robalino, David A. and Jenkins, Carol and El Maroufi, Karim, The Risks and Macroeconomic Impact of Hiv/Aids in the Middle East and North Africa: Why Waiting to Intervene Can Be Costly (July 2002). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2874. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=636238

David A. Robalino (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Carol Jenkins

Auburn University ( email )

415 West Magnolia Avenue
Auburn, AL 36849
United States

Karim El Maroufi

World Bank

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

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