A New Test of Capital Structure

Abstract

We report results of a new test of the financing of large and indivisible projects - arguably the focus of most capital structure theory. We develop a filter that identifies investment spikes in a large population of firms. Consistent with the pecking-order theory we find that projects are predominantly financed with debt, particularly in large and profitable firms. However, we reject the hypothesis that internal finance plays a major role in funding investment. Consistent with the trade-off theory, firms show a strong tendency to revert back to their initial leverage. This pattern of "pecking order in the short run, trade-off in the long run" is consistent with equity adjustment being postponed until certain thresholds are reached. However, we do not find evidence that equity issues are lumpy or infrequent.

Keywords: Capital structure, pecking order theory, trade-off theory

JEL Classification: G32