The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk
51 Pages Posted: 12 Jan 2005
Date Written: August 2006
Aggregate consumption growth risk explains why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. We sort foreign T-bills into portfolios based on the nominal interest rate differential with the US, and we test the Euler equation of a US investor who invests in these currency portfolios. US investors earn negative excess returns on low interest rate currency portfolios and positive excess returns on high interest rates currency portfolios. We find that low interest rate currencies provide US investors with a hedge against US aggregate consumption growth risk, because these currencies appreciate on average when US consumption growth is low, while high interest rate currencies depreciate when US consumption growth is low.
Keywords: Asset Pricing, Exchange Rates
JEL Classification: G12, F30
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation