Rounding of Analyst Forecasts

Posted: 15 Mar 2005

See all articles by Don Herrmann

Don Herrmann

Oklahoma State University - Stillwater - School of Accounting

Wayne B. Thomas

University of Oklahoma

Abstract

We find that analyst forecasts of earnings per share occur in nickel intervals at a much greater frequency than do actual earnings per share. Analysts who round their earnings per share forecasts to nickel intervals exhibit characteristics of analysts that are less informed, exert less effort, and have fewer resources. Rounded forecasts are less accurate and the negative relation between rounding and forecast accuracy increases as the rounding interval goes from nickel to dime, quarter, half-dollar, and dollar intervals. An examination of announcement period returns provides evidence that market expectations more closely align with consensus forecasts including rounded forecasts and then correct toward the more accurate consensus forecasts excluding rounded forecasts. Finally, exclusion of rounded forecasts decreases forecast dispersion.

Keywords: Heaping, rounding, analyst forecast accuracy, dispersion

JEL Classification: D84, M41, G29

Suggested Citation

Herrmann, Don and Thomas, Wayne B., Rounding of Analyst Forecasts. Accounting Review, Vol. 80, July 2005. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=650884

Don Herrmann

Oklahoma State University - Stillwater - School of Accounting ( email )

College of Business Administration
345 Business Building
Stillwater, OK 74078
United States

Wayne B. Thomas (Contact Author)

University of Oklahoma ( email )

Michael F. Price College of Business,
307 W Brooks, Rm 212B
Norman, OK 73019
United States
405-325-5789 (Phone)
405-325-7348 (Fax)

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