An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth

Mitchell, James; Smith, Richard J.; Weale, Martin R.; Wright, Stephen H.; Salazar, Eduardo L.

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An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth

22 Pages Posted: 27 Jan 2005

See all articles by James Mitchell

James Mitchell

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

Richard J. Smith

University of Warwick - Department of Economics; National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

Martin R. Weale

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

Eduardo L. Salazar

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

Abstract

A range of monthly series are currently available giving indications of short-term movements in output in the UK. The main aim of this paper is to suggest a formal and coherent procedure for grossing these monthly data up to represent the whole of GDP. Although the resultant estimates of GDP would be worse than those obtained by direct measurement, they should be more satisfactory than simply making an informal inference from whatever monthly data are available. Our examination of the efficacy of the method for estimation of the state of economic activity indicates a rather satisfactory outcome.

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Mitchell, James and Smith, Richard J. and Weale, Martin R. and Wright, Stephen H. and Salazar, Eduardo L., An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=654832