An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth

22 Pages Posted: 27 Jan 2005

See all articles by James Mitchell

James Mitchell

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

Richard J. Smith

University of Warwick - Department of Economics; National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

Martin R. Weale

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

Stephen H. Wright

Birkbeck College, University of London

Eduardo L. Salazar

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

Abstract

A range of monthly series are currently available giving indications of short-term movements in output in the UK. The main aim of this paper is to suggest a formal and coherent procedure for grossing these monthly data up to represent the whole of GDP. Although the resultant estimates of GDP would be worse than those obtained by direct measurement, they should be more satisfactory than simply making an informal inference from whatever monthly data are available. Our examination of the efficacy of the method for estimation of the state of economic activity indicates a rather satisfactory outcome.

Suggested Citation

Mitchell, James and Smith, Richard J. and Weale, Martin R. and Wright, Stephen H. and Salazar, Eduardo L., An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=654832

James Mitchell (Contact Author)

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) ( email )

2 Dean Trench Street
Smith Square
London SW1P 3HE
United Kingdom

Richard J. Smith

University of Warwick - Department of Economics ( email )

Coventry CV4 7AL
United Kingdom
+44 0 24 7652 3468 (Phone)
+44 0 24 7652 3032 (Fax)

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

2 Dean Trench Street
Smith Square
London SW1P 3HE
United Kingdom

Martin R. Weale

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) ( email )

2 Dean Trench Street
Smith Square
London SW1P 3HE
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.niesr.ac.uk/

Stephen H. Wright

Birkbeck College, University of London ( email )

Malet St
London, WC1 E7HX
United Kingdom

Eduardo L. Salazar

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

2 Dean Trench Street
Smith Square
London SW1P 3HE
United Kingdom

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