Modelling the Effects of Meteorological Variables on Ozone Concentration - a Quantile Regression Approach

Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 38, No. 28, pp. 4689-4699, 2004

Posted: 27 Jan 2005

See all articles by Dirk G. Baur

Dirk G. Baur

University of Western Australia - Business School; Financial Research Network (FIRN)

Michaela Saisana

Joint Research Centre, Italy

Niels Schulze

Deutsche Bundesbank - Financial Stability Department

Abstract

This paper proposes the use of the conditional quantile regression approach for the interpretation of the nonlinear relationships between daily maximum 1-h ozone concentrations and both meteorological and persistence information. When applied to eight years (1992-1999) of data from four monitoring sites in Athens, quantile regression results show that the contributions of the explanatory variables to the conditional distribution of the ozone concentrations vary significantly at different ozone regimes. This evidence of heterogeneity in the ozone values is hidden in an ordinary least-square regression that is confined to providing a single central tendency measure. Furthermore, the utilization of an 'amalgated' quantile regression model leads to a significantly improved goodness of fit at all sites. Finally, computation of conditional ozone densities through a simple quantile regression model allows the estimation of complete density distributions that can be used for forecasting next day's ozone concentrations under an uncertainty framework.

Keywords: Air pollution, Photochemical modeling, Quantile regression, Conditional density estimation

Suggested Citation

Baur, Dirk G. and Saisana, Michaela and Schulze, Niels, Modelling the Effects of Meteorological Variables on Ozone Concentration - a Quantile Regression Approach. Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 38, No. 28, pp. 4689-4699, 2004, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=655227

Dirk G. Baur (Contact Author)

University of Western Australia - Business School ( email )

School of Business
35 Stirling Highway
Crawley, Western Australia 6009
Australia

Financial Research Network (FIRN)

C/- University of Queensland Business School
St Lucia, 4071 Brisbane
Queensland
Australia

HOME PAGE: http://www.firn.org.au

Michaela Saisana

Joint Research Centre, Italy ( email )

Via E. Fermi 1
I-21020 Ispra (VA)
Italy

Niels Schulze

Deutsche Bundesbank - Financial Stability Department ( email )

Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14
60431 Frankfurt am Main
Germany

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