69 Pages Posted: 27 Jan 2005
Date Written: January 26, 2005
There are two main forces behind the large U.S. current account deficits. First, an increase in the U.S. demand for foreign goods. Second, an increase in the foreign demand for U.S. assets.
Both forces have contributed to steadily increasing current account deficits since the mid-1990s. This increase has been accompanied by a real dollar appreciation until late 2001, and a real depreciation since. The depreciation accelerated in late 2004, raising the questions of whether and how much more is to come, and if so, against which currencies, the euro, the yen, or the renminbi.
Our purpose in this paper is to explore these issues. Our theoretical contribution is to develop a simple model of exchange rate and current account determination based on imperfect substitutability in both goods and asset markets, and to use it to interpret the past and explore alternative scenarios for the future. Our practical conclusions are that substantially more depreciation is to come, surely against the yen and the renminbi, and probably against the euro.
Keywords: current account deficit, dollar, depreciation, appreciation, euro, portfolio choice, yen, renminbi
JEL Classification: E3, F21, F32, F41
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Blanchard, Olivier J. and Giavazzi, Francesco and Sa, Filipa, The U.S. Current Account and the Dollar (January 26, 2005). MIT Department of Economics Working Paper No. 05-02. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=655402 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.655402