Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock
34 Pages Posted: 2 Jan 2005
Date Written: January 2005
Can asset price bubbles be detected? This survey of econometric tests of asset price bubbles shows that, despite recent advances, econometric detection of asset price bubbles cannot be achieved with a satisfactory degree of certainty. For each paper that finds evidence of bubbles, there is another one that fits the data equally well without allowing for a bubble. We are still unable to distinguish bubbles from time-varying or regime-switching fundamentals, while many small sample econometrics problems of bubble tests remain unresolved.
Keywords: asset price bubbles, econometric bubble detection
JEL Classification: G12, C52
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation