Ins, Outs, and the Duration of Trade

35 Pages Posted: 2 Feb 2005

See all articles by Tibor Besedes

Tibor Besedes

Georgia Institute of Technology

Thomas J. Prusa

Rutgers University

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 2004


We employ survival analysis to study the duration of US imports. Our findings indicate that international trade is far more dynamic than previously thought. We find the median duration of exporting a product to the US is very short, on the order of two to four years. There is negative duration dependence - if a country is able to survive in the exporting market for the first few years it will face a very small probability of failure and will likely export the product for a long period of time. The results hold across countries and industries and are robust to aggregation.

Keywords: International Trade, Duration Analysis, Market Entry, Market Exit

JEL Classification: F14, F19, C14, C41

Suggested Citation

Besedes, Tibor and Prusa, Thomas J., Ins, Outs, and the Duration of Trade (December 2004). Available at SSRN: or

Tibor Besedes (Contact Author)

Georgia Institute of Technology ( email )

221 Bobby Dodd Way
Atlanta, GA 30332-0615
United States

Thomas J. Prusa

Rutgers University ( email )

Dept of Economics
75 Hamilton St
New Brunswick, NJ 08901
United States
848-932-8646 (Phone)
732-932-7416 (Fax)

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