Ins, Outs, and the Duration of Trade

Abstract

We employ survival analysis to study the duration of US imports. Our findings indicate that international trade is far more dynamic than previously thought. We find the median duration of exporting a product to the US is very short, on the order of two to four years. There is negative duration dependence - if a country is able to survive in the exporting market for the first few years it will face a very small probability of failure and will likely export the product for a long period of time. The results hold across countries and industries and are robust to aggregation.

Keywords: International Trade, Duration Analysis, Market Entry, Market Exit

JEL Classification: F14, F19, C14, C41