Ins, Outs, and the Duration of Trade
35 Pages Posted: 2 Feb 2005
Date Written: December 2004
We employ survival analysis to study the duration of US imports. Our findings indicate that international trade is far more dynamic than previously thought. We find the median duration of exporting a product to the US is very short, on the order of two to four years. There is negative duration dependence - if a country is able to survive in the exporting market for the first few years it will face a very small probability of failure and will likely export the product for a long period of time. The results hold across countries and industries and are robust to aggregation.
Keywords: International Trade, Duration Analysis, Market Entry, Market Exit
JEL Classification: F14, F19, C14, C41
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation