27 Pages Posted: 6 Feb 2005
This paper examines the lead-lag relationship between futures trading activity (volume and open interest) and cash price volatility for major agricultural commodities. Granger causality tests and generalized forecast error variance decompositions show that an unexpected increase in futures trading volume unidirectionally causes an increase in cash price volatility for most commodities. Likewise, there is a weak causal feedback between open interest and cash price volatility. These findings are generally consistent with the destabilizing effect of futures trading on agricultural commodity markets.
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Yang, Jian and Balyeat, R. Brian and Leatham, David J., Futures Trading Activity and Commodity Cash Price Volatility. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Vol. 32, No. 1-2, pp. 297-323, January 2005. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=662001
By Wenchao Liao
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