Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions?

4 Pages Posted: 7 Feb 2005 Last revised: 1 Jan 2012

See all articles by J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract

The M3-Competition continues to improve the design of forecasting competitions: It examines more series than any previous competition, improves error analyses and includes commercial forecasting programs as competitors. To judge where to go from here, I step back to look at the M-Competitions as a whole. I discuss the advantages of the M-Competitions in hopes that they will be retained, describe how to gain additional benefit from future competitions, and finally, describe a low-cost approach to competitions.

Keywords: M3-competition, forecasting, forecasting error

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, J. Scott, Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions?. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 17, pp. 542-545, 2001. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=662563

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

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