Potential Diffusion of Expert Systems in Forecasting

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 67, pp. 93-103, 2001

10 Pages Posted: 7 Feb 2005 Last revised: 7 Jul 2012

See all articles by J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Thomas Yokum

Angelo State University - College of Business and Professional Studies

Abstract

We drew upon findings from the diffusion literature to assess the prospects for the diffusion of expert systems in forecasting. Forecasters judged potential adoption of expert systems in relation to two techniques that had been widely adopted in the past, Box-Jenkins and scenarios. They also rated each technique on seven innovation characteristics: relative advantage, compatibility, divisibility, communicability, complexity, product risks, and psychological risks. The respondents were classified by four forecaster roles: researcher, educator, practitioner, and decision maker. In general, the expected probabilities of adoption for expert systems were slightly higher than for the two other techniques. Additionally, the respondents rated expert systems nearly equivalent to Box-Jenkins and scenarios on relative advantage and communicability. In relating the probabilities of adoption to the characteristic ratings, the groups perceived significant negative psychological and product risks with expert systems. However the experts, especially practitioners and decision makers, rated expert systems positive on compatibility, divisibility, and communicability, so it may be desirable to ensure that these positive traits are stressed with potential adopters, especially researchers and educators.

Keywords: Forecasting, diffusions, expert forecasting, forecaster, forecast system

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, J. Scott and Yokum, Thomas, Potential Diffusion of Expert Systems in Forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 67, pp. 93-103, 2001. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=662582

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

Thomas Yokum

Angelo State University - College of Business and Professional Studies ( email )

Rassman Building
San Antonio, TX 76909
325-942-2383 (Phone)
325-655-7807 (Fax)

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