Forecasting for Marketing
QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN MARKETING, Second Edition, G. J. Hooley and M. K. Hussey. eds., London: International Thompson Business Press, pp. 92-119, 1999
20 Pages Posted: 7 Feb 2005 Last revised: 1 Jan 2012
Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in order to determine which ones are most effective. We review this evidence in order to provide guidelines for forecasting for marketing. The coverage includes intentions, Delphi, role playing, conjoint analysis, judgmental bootstrapping, analogies, extrapolation, rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We discuss research about which methods are most appropriate to forecast market size, actions of decision makers, market share, sales, and financial outcomes. In general, there is a need for statistical methods that incorporate the manager's domain knowledge. This includes rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We describe how to choose a forecasting method and provide guidelines for the effective use of forecasts including such procedures as scenarios.
Keywords: Marketing, forecasting, effective forecasting, delphi, conjoint analysis, judgmental bootstrapping, analogies, extrapolation, rule-based forecasting, expert systems, econometric methods, intention, role playing
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?
Brief Vs. Comprehensive Descriptions in Measuring Intentions to Purchase
Do Diseconomies of Scale Impact Firm Size and Performance? A Theoretical and Empirical Overview
By Staffan Canback, Phillip Samouel, ...