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Forecasting for Marketing

QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN MARKETING, Second Edition, G. J. Hooley and M. K. Hussey. eds., London: International Thompson Business Press, pp. 92-119, 1999

20 Pages Posted: 7 Feb 2005 Last revised: 1 Jan 2012

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Rod Brodie

University of Auckland - Department of Marketing

Abstract

Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in order to determine which ones are most effective. We review this evidence in order to provide guidelines for forecasting for marketing. The coverage includes intentions, Delphi, role playing, conjoint analysis, judgmental bootstrapping, analogies, extrapolation, rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We discuss research about which methods are most appropriate to forecast market size, actions of decision makers, market share, sales, and financial outcomes. In general, there is a need for statistical methods that incorporate the manager's domain knowledge. This includes rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We describe how to choose a forecasting method and provide guidelines for the effective use of forecasts including such procedures as scenarios.

Keywords: Marketing, forecasting, effective forecasting, delphi, conjoint analysis, judgmental bootstrapping, analogies, extrapolation, rule-based forecasting, expert systems, econometric methods, intention, role playing

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, J. Scott and Brodie, Rod, Forecasting for Marketing. QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN MARKETING, Second Edition, G. J. Hooley and M. K. Hussey. eds., London: International Thompson Business Press, pp. 92-119, 1999. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=662622

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

Rod Brodie

University of Auckland - Department of Marketing ( email )

Private Bag 92019
Auckland
New Zealand

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