Beyond Accuracy: Comparison of Criteria Used to Select Forecasting Methods

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 11, pp. 591-597, 1995

6 Pages Posted: 7 Feb 2005 Last revised: 1 Jan 2012

See all articles by Thomas Yokum

Thomas Yokum

Angelo State University - College of Business and Professional Studies

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract

Two studies were conducted to examine expert opinions of criteria used to select forecasting techniques. In Study One, while accuracy was a dominant criterion, the ratings of five of thirteen criteria varied by the role of the forecaster. Researchers rated accuracy relatively higher than did practitioners, educators or decision-makers. Decision makers rated implementation-related criteria, such as ease criteria, relatively higher than the other groups. In Study Two, forecasting experts significantly varied their ratings on six of seven criteria according to situations. Other criteria were often as important or more important than accuracy, especially when the situation involved making many forecasts. In general, there was much agreement across roles and across situations that accuracy was the most important criterion, but other criteria were rated as being almost as important. In particular, factors related to implementation, such as ease of interpretation and ease of use, were highly rated.

Keywords: Expert opinion, Forecaster's role, Forecast situation, Implementation

Suggested Citation

Yokum, Thomas and Armstrong, J. Scott, Beyond Accuracy: Comparison of Criteria Used to Select Forecasting Methods. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 11, pp. 591-597, 1995. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=662664

Thomas Yokum

Angelo State University - College of Business and Professional Studies ( email )

Rassman Building
San Antonio, TX 76909
325-942-2383 (Phone)
325-655-7807 (Fax)

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

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