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How Serious are Methodological Issues in Surveys? A Reexamination of the Clarence Thomas Polls

7 Pages Posted: 7 Feb 2005 Last revised: 4 Apr 2012

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Fred Collopy

Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems

Date Written: 1994

Abstract

Opinion polling procedures allow for reasonable inferences about attitude changes. We examined this contention using surveys about the nomination of Clarence Thomas. In this situation, prior theory allowed us to predict the direction of changes, surveys had been conducted by a number of organizations, and substantial information was available about the methodology used in the surveys. As a result we concluded that the deteriorating opinions of Thomas were real.

Keywords: forecasting, surveys, Clarence Thomas Polls, opinion polling

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, J. Scott and Collopy, Fred, How Serious are Methodological Issues in Surveys? A Reexamination of the Clarence Thomas Polls (1994). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=662681 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.662681

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

Fred Collopy

Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems ( email )

10900 Euclid Ave.
Cleveland, OH 44106-7235
United States

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