The Other January Effect

46 Pages Posted: 7 Feb 2005

See all articles by Michael J. Cooper

Michael J. Cooper

University of Utah - David Eccles School of Business

John J. McConnell

Purdue University

Alexei V. Ovtchinnikov

HEC Paris - Finance Department

Date Written: September 19, 2005


"Streetlore" has touted the market return in January as a predictor of market returns for the remainder of the year since at least 1973. We systematically examine the predictive power of January returns over the period 1940-2003 and find that January returns have predictive power for market returns over the next 11 months of the year. The effect persists after controlling for macroeconomic/business cycle variables that have been shown to predict stock returns, the Presidential Cycle in returns, and investor sentiment and persists among both large and small capitalization stocks and among both value and glamour stocks. Additionally, we find that January has predictive power for two of the three premiums in the Fama-French (1993) three-factor model of asset pricing.

Suggested Citation

Cooper, Michael J. and McConnell, John J. and Ovtchinnikov, Alexei V., The Other January Effect (September 19, 2005). AFA 2006 Boston Meetings Paper. Available at SSRN: or

Michael J. Cooper (Contact Author)

University of Utah - David Eccles School of Business ( email )

1645 E Campus Center Dr
Salt Lake City, UT 84112-9303
United States

John J. McConnell

Purdue University ( email )

403 West State St.
West Lafayette, IN 47907-2056
United States
765-494-5910 (Phone)
765-494-7863 (Fax)

Alexei V. Ovtchinnikov

HEC Paris - Finance Department ( email )

1 rue de la Liberation
Jouy-en-Josas Cedex, 78351

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