Expert Opinions About Extrapolation and the Mystery of the Overlooked Discontinuities

10 Pages Posted: 8 Feb 2005 Last revised: 22 Jul 2008

See all articles by Fred Collopy

Fred Collopy

Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract

We report on the opinions of 49 forecasting experts on guidelines for extrapolation methods. They agreed that seasonality, trend, aggregation, and discontinuities were key features to use for selecting extrapolation methods. The strong agreement about the importance of discontinuities was surprising because this topic has been largely ignored in the forecasting literature.

Keywords: Discontinuities, Forecasting guidelines, Selection criteria, Time series features

Suggested Citation

Collopy, Fred and Armstrong, J. Scott, Expert Opinions About Extrapolation and the Mystery of the Overlooked Discontinuities. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 8, pp. 575-582, 1992. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=663643

Fred Collopy

Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems ( email )

10900 Euclid Ave.
Cleveland, OH 44106-7235
United States

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

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