Download This PaperExpert Opinions About Extrapolation and the Mystery of the Overlooked Discontinuities
10 Pages Posted: 8 Feb 2005 Last revised: 22 Jul 2008
Abstract
We report on the opinions of 49 forecasting experts on guidelines for extrapolation methods. They agreed that seasonality, trend, aggregation, and discontinuities were key features to use for selecting extrapolation methods. The strong agreement about the importance of discontinuities was surprising because this topic has been largely ignored in the forecasting literature.
Keywords: Discontinuities, Forecasting guidelines, Selection criteria, Time series features
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J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)
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