Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices

Posted: 8 Feb 2005 Last revised: 1 Jan 2012

See all articles by J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

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This article presents a study on the predictive value of scientific knowledge of consumer behavior. It does this by obtaining predictions from people who should be well acquainted with such knowledge, and comparing their predictions with those by people who are unlikely to have this knowledge. The first section of the article presents the hypotheses. A description of the prediction study is then presented, followed by results and limitations. Finally, suggestions are provided for improving the predictive value of research on consumer behavior.

Keywords: Forecasting, consumer behavior, scientific knowledge, prediction, marketing

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, J. Scott, Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices. Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 18, pp. 251-256, September 1991, Available at SSRN:

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

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