Predicting Job Performance: A Comparison of Expert Opinion and Research Findings

8 Pages Posted: 8 Feb 2005 Last revised: 1 Jan 2012

See all articles by J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Stephen Dakin

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Abstract

A survey was conducted of New Zealand personnel consultants. Their beliefs about the validity of various selection tools and their claimed usage of these tools was then compared with the validities in a previously published meta-analysis. The experts claimed to use the predictors they believed to be most valid. However, their beliefs about validity were unrelated to empirically demonstrated validities (Spearman's rho = -0.06). Suggestions were made on the types of research that are needed to improve predictive ability in selection and on the ways in which practitioners can use existing research.

Keywords: Employee selection, Forecasting, Job performance, Predictor validity, Research vs. expert opinion

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, J. Scott and Dakin, Stephen, Predicting Job Performance: A Comparison of Expert Opinion and Research Findings. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 5, pp. 187-194, 1989. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=663650

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

Stephen Dakin

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
95
Abstract Views
1,114
rank
274,364
PlumX Metrics