Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984

Interfaces, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 89-109, January-February 1986

13 Pages Posted: 8 Feb 2005 Last revised: 1 Jan 2012

See all articles by J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract

Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has grown rapidly, especially in the area of judgmental forecasting. This research supports and adds to the forecasting guidelines proposed before 1960, such as the value of combining forecasts. New findings have led to significant gains in our ability to forecast and to help people to use forecasts. What have we reamed about forecasting over the past quarter century? Does recent research provide guidance for making more accurate forecasts, obtaining better assessments of uncertainty, or gaining acceptance of our forecasts? I will first describe forecasting principles that were believed to be the most advanced in 1960. Following that, I will examine the evidence produced since 1960.

Keywords: Forecasting methods, forecast, 1960, research, forecasting principles

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, J. Scott, Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984. Interfaces, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 89-109, January-February 1986. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=663662

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

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