Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners

Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 1, pp. 215-1217, 1982

3 Pages Posted: 8 Feb 2005 Last revised: 4 Apr 2012

See all articles by J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Robert Carbone

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Abstract

There exists a large number of quantitative extrapolative forecasting methods which may be applied in research work or implemented in an organizational setting. For instance, the lead article of this issue of the Journal of Forecasting compares the ability to forecast the future of over twenty univariate forecasting methods. Forecasting researchers in various academic disciplines as well as practitioners in private or public organizations are commonly faced with the problem of evaluating forecasting methods and ultimately selecting one. Thereafter, most become advocates of the method they have selected. On what basis are choices made? More specifically, what are the criteria used or the dimensions judged important? If a survey was taken among academicians and practitioners, would the same criteria arise? Would they be weighted equally? Before you continue reading this note, write on a piece of paper your criteria in order of importance and answer the last two questions. This will enable you to see whether or not you share the same values as your colleagues and test the accuracy of your perception.

Keywords: Forecasting, extrapolcation model, forecasting academic and organizational practitioners

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, J. Scott and Carbone, Robert, Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners. Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 1, pp. 215-1217, 1982. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=663667

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

Robert Carbone

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
42
Abstract Views
742
PlumX Metrics