How Expert are the Experts?
Inc., pp. 15-16, December 1981
3 Pages Posted: 8 Feb 2005 Last revised: 1 Jan 2012
Despite all the evidence that vast expertise doesn't produce better forecasts, businessmen and others continue to pay experts as if they were seers. That realization has led me to produce The Seer-Sucker Theory. It says: No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, suckers will pay for seers. I forecast that no one is likely to refute this theory any time soon.
Keywords: Expert forecasting, forecasting value, seer-sucker theory
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