How Expert are the Experts?

Inc., pp. 15-16, December 1981

3 Pages Posted: 8 Feb 2005 Last revised: 1 Jan 2012

See all articles by J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department


Despite all the evidence that vast expertise doesn't produce better forecasts, businessmen and others continue to pay experts as if they were seers. That realization has led me to produce The Seer-Sucker Theory. It says: No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, suckers will pay for seers. I forecast that no one is likely to refute this theory any time soon.

Keywords: Expert forecasting, forecasting value, seer-sucker theory

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, J. Scott, How Expert are the Experts?. Inc., pp. 15-16, December 1981, Available at SSRN:

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
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Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)


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