An Application of Econometric Models to International Marketing

Journal of Marketing Research, VII, pp. 190-198, May 1970

12 Pages Posted: 9 Feb 2005 Last revised: 31 Dec 2011

See all articles by J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract

This article has discussed changes in the past thirty years in the use of econometric models for measuring geographical markets. The major advance was found in the recent emphasis on use of a priori information. The results for a particular case, the international market for still cameras, indicated that econometric models, at their current level of development, provide useful information for estimating international markets. A test in which the use of the additional information from the econometric model led to improvement in backcasting showed that the mean absolute percentage error for an 8-year backcast was reduced from 30% to 23%. The model has other benefits beside its improved predictions over time. An examination of the value of a priori analysis showed a reduction of mean absolute percentage error for predictions of the 1960-65 market sizes of 11new countries from 52% to 31%.

Keywords: Econometric models, international marketing, priori information, forecasting, marketing

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, J. Scott, An Application of Econometric Models to International Marketing. Journal of Marketing Research, VII, pp. 190-198, May 1970. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=664163

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

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