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Monetary Convergence of the EU Accession Countries to the Eurozone: A Theoretical Framework and Policy Implications

Posted: 8 Feb 2005  

Lucjan T. Orlowski

Sacred Heart University - John F. Welch College of Business

Abstract

A flexible approach to direct inflation targeting offers the European Union accession countries a viable monetary policy choice that is believed to facilitate both the economic transition and the monetary convergence to the eurozone. Following this assumption, a model investigating the nexus between inflation and selected monetary variables in three EU accession countries: the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary is advanced. The empirical analysis is aimed at explaining the sensitivity of the CPI-based inflation path in these countries to backward- as well as forward-looking expectations, nominal exchange rate fluctuations, the eurozone inflation impulses, and output changes. The analysis implies that the monetary convergence begins with flexible inflation targeting and concludes with a full-fledged euroization.

Keywords: European Union accession, inflation targeting, monetary convergence

JEL Classification: E42, E52, F36, P24

Suggested Citation

Orlowski, Lucjan T., Monetary Convergence of the EU Accession Countries to the Eurozone: A Theoretical Framework and Policy Implications. Journal of Banking and Finance Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 203-225, January 2005. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=664189

Lucjan T. Orlowski (Contact Author)

Sacred Heart University - John F. Welch College of Business ( email )

5151 Park Avenue
Fairfield, CT 06825
United States
203-371-7858 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.sacredheart.edu/ltorlowski.cfm

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